Impact of the initialisation on the predictability of the 1 Southern Ocean sea ice at interannual to multi - decadal

Arctic Ocean sea ice response to Northern Annular Mode-like wind forcing

[1] The response of the Arctic Ocean sea ice system to Northern Annular Mode-like wind forcing has been investigated using an ocean/sea ice general circulation model coupled to an atmospheric boundary layer model. A series of idealized experiments was performed to investigate the Arctic Ocean’s response to idealized winter wind anomalies on interannual to multi-decadal time scales. The sea ice ...

Interdecadal Amplitude Modulation of El Ni~ no–Southern Oscillation and Its Impact on Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability*

The amplitude of El Ni~ no–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) displays pronounced interdecadal modulations in observations. The mechanisms for the amplitude modulation are investigated using a 2000-yr preindustrial control integration from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). ENSO amplitude modulation is highly correlated with the second empirical orthogon...

Climate Predictability on Interannual to Decadal Time Scales: The Initial Value Problem

Any initial value forecast of climate will be subject to errors originating from poorly known initial conditions, model imperfections, and by “chaos” in the sense that, even if the initial conditions were perfectly known, infinitesimal errors can amplify and spoil the forecast at some lead time. Here the latter source of error is examined using a “perfect model” approach whereby small perturbat...

Coherence between lake ice cover, local climate and teleconnections (Lake Mendota, Wisconsin)

0022-1694/$ see front matter 2009 Elsevier B.V. A doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.024 * Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 414 229 6756; fax E-mail address: [email protected] (H.R. Bravo). Ice duration has shortened and the ice-off date has become earlier for Lake Mendota from 1905 to 2000 as air temperatures have warmed and snowfall has increased. In addition, the ice record has cyclic components at i...

Diagnosis of decadal predictability of Southern Ocean sea surface temperature in 1 the GFDL CM 2 . 1 model